September normally is one of the worst performing months of Bitcoin and the regular financial markets, but could it be different this time ? It might be!
Bitcoin is clearly consolidating and will soon choose to break into a certain direction. If we have a look at some key-levels of Bitcoin like the 200DMA then we can see Bitcoin is still trading above this moving average, which is a sign of strength, as long as we are trading above it of course.
a lot of other technicals are looking slightly bearish, for example the RSI and MACD are showing that this rally might run out of fuel very soon and although that is possible, we still should expect Bitcoin to remain in this uptrend until breaking those key levels. The most important key levels right now would be the 200DMA (+- 46000) but there is another level we can watch which might let us know earlier if Bitcoin wants to go south from here and that is the 20 Daily EMA (+- 46900).
The momentum indicators in the short term (4h) are starting to show some strength again, while the daily is still looking slightly bearish.
While the monthly chart of Bitcoin is looking quite bullish I still think we need to favour the bull case over the bear case unless breaking those key support levels.
To summarise, Bitcoin is nearing a crossroad and will see volatility very soon. We expect it to be to the upside, as long as we are holding above the 200DMA/20EMA. Losing these levels will most likely mean a correction over the coming days/weeks.
Levels to watch if we are seeing a correction in September are :
these could be levels to re-accumulate Bitcoin.